Educational Mobility, Pace of Aging, and Lifespan Among Participants in the Framingham Heart Study.

Importance: People who complete more education live longer lives with better health. New evidence suggests that these benefits operate through a slowed pace of biological aging. If so, measurements of the pace of biological aging could offer intermediate end points for studies of how interventions to promote education will affect healthy longevity. Objective: To test the hypothesis that upward educational mobility is associated with a slower pace of biological aging and increased longevity. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study analyzed data from 3 generations of participants in the Framingham Heart Study: (1) the original cohort, enrolled beginning in 1948; (2) the Offspring cohort, enrolled beginning in 1971; and (3) the Gen3 cohort, enrolled beginning in 2002. A 3-generation database was constructed to quantify intergenerational educational mobility. Mobility data were linked with blood DNA-methylation data collected from the Offspring cohort in 2005 to 2008 (n = 1652) and the Gen3 cohort in 2009 to 2011 (n = 1449). Follow-up is ongoing. Data analysis was conducted from June 2022 to November 2023 using data obtained from the National Institutes of Health database of Genotypes and Phenotypes (dbGaP). Exposure: Educational mobility was measured by comparing participants' educational outcomes with those of their parents. Main Outcomes and Measures: The pace of biological aging was measured from whole-blood DNA-methylation data using the DunedinPACE epigenetic clock. For comparison purposes, the analysis was repeated using 4 other epigenetic clocks. Survival follow-up was conducted through 2019. Results: This study analyzed data from 3101 participants from the Framingham Heart Study; 1652 were in the Offspring cohort (mean [SD] age, 65.57 [9.22] years; 764 [46.2%] male) and 1449 were in the Gen3 cohort (mean [SD] age, 45.38 [7.83] years; 691 [47.7%] male). Participants who were upwardly mobile in educational terms tended to have slower pace of aging in later life (r = -0.18 [95% CI, -0.23 to -0.13]; P < .001). This pattern of association was similar across generations and held in within-family sibling comparisons. There were 402 Offspring cohort participants who died over the follow-up period. Upward educational mobility was associated with lower mortality risk (hazard ratio, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.81 to 0.98]; P = .01). Slower pace of aging accounted for approximately half of this association. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study's findings support the hypothesis that interventions to promote educational attainment may slow the pace of biological aging and promote longevity. Epigenetic clocks have potential as near-term outcome measures of intervention effects on healthy aging. Experimental evidence is needed to confirm findings.

Effect of Expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit to Americans Without Dependent Children on Psychological Distress.

Antipoverty policies have the potential to improve mental health. We conducted a randomized trial (Paycheck Plus Health Study Randomized Controlled Trial, New York, New York) to investigate whether a 4-fold increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit for low-income Americans without dependent children would reduce psychological distress relative to the current federal credit. Between 2013 and 2014, a total of 5,968 participants were recruited; 2,997 were randomly assigned to the treatment group and 2,971 were assigned to the control group. Survey data were collected 32 months postrandomization (n = 4,749). Eligibility for the program increased employment by 1.9 percentage points and after-bonus earnings by 6% ($635/year), on average, over the 3 years of the study. Treatment was associated with a marginally statistically significant decline in psychological distress, as measured by the 6-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, relative to the control group (score change = -0.30 points, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.63, 0.03; P = 0.072). Women in the treated group experienced a half-point reduction in psychological distress (score change = -0.55 points, 95% CI: -0.97, -0.13; P = 0.032), and noncustodial parents had a 1.36-point reduction (95% CI: -2.24, -0.49; P = 0.011). Expansion of a large antipoverty program to individuals without dependent children reduced psychological distress for women and noncustodial parents-the groups that benefitted the most in terms of increased after-bonus earnings.

Generational differences in longitudinal blood pressure trajectories by geographic region during socioeconomic transitions in China.

OBJECTIVES: To examine generational differences in longitudinal blood pressure trajectories by region following socioeconomic transitions, which is important for establishing the population risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). METHODS: With data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1991-2011), we used multilevel growth-curve models to estimate systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) levels at the mean age and rates of change by cohort (born between 1931 and 1980), region, and sex. RESULTS: Younger cohorts generally had higher SBP/DBP levels at 44.5 years but lower growth rates in SBP/DBP than older cohorts. They became prehypertensive (SBP ≥ 120 mm Hg or DBP ≥ 80 mm Hg) at an earlier age. The upward shift of SBP/DBP trajectories across cohorts was more pronounced in the Coastal and Southern Mountainous Regions than the Northeastern and Inland Regions, and for males versus females. CONCLUSIONS: Younger cohorts have a longer lifetime duration of being susceptible to CVDs, posing warnings for an increased burden of CVDs. Generational differences in BP trajectories and geographic and sex variations in the cohort trends highlight the need for tailored interventions to tackle the generation, region, and sex-based risk of CVDs.

The cost-effectiveness analysis of the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme in China.

OBJECTIVE: The New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) is a universal healthcare coverage plan now covering over 98% of rural residents in China, first implemented in 2003. Rising costs in the face of modest gains in health and financial protections have raised questions about the cost-effectiveness of the NCMS. METHODS: Using the most recent estimates of the NCMS's health and economic consequences from a comprehensive review of the literature, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model for a hypothetical cohort between ages 20 and 100. We then did one-way sensitivity analyses and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to explore whether the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) falls below 37,059 international dollars [Int$], the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of three times per capita GDP of China in 2013. FINDINGS: The ICER of the NCMS over the lifetime of an average 20-year-old rural resident in China was about Int$71,480 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained (95% confidence interval: cost-saving, Int$845,659/QALY). There was less than a 33% chance that the system was cost-saving or met the WTP threshold. However, the NCMS did fall under the threshold when changes in the program costs, the risk of mortality and hypertension, and the likelihood of labor force participation were tested in one-way sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: The NCMS appears to be economically inefficient in its current form. Further cost-effectiveness analyses are warranted in designing insurance benefit packages to ensure that the NCMS fund goes toward health care that has a good value in improving survival and quality of life.

America's Declining Well-Being, Health, and Life Expectancy: Not Just a White Problem.

Although recent declines in life expectancy among non-Hispanic Whites, coined "deaths of despair," grabbed the headlines of most major media outlets, this is neither a recent problem nor is it confined to Whites. The decline in America's health has been described in the public health literature for decades and has long been hypothesized to be attributable to an array of worsening psychosocial problems that are not specific to Whites. To test some of the dominant hypotheses, we show how various measures of despair have been increasing in the United States since 1980 and how these trends relate to changes in health and longevity. We show that mortality increases among Whites caused by the opioid epidemic come on the heels of the crack and HIV syndemic among Blacks. Both occurred on top of already higher mortality rates among all Americans relative to people in other nations, and both occurred among declines in measures of well-being. We believe that the attention given to Whites is distracting researchers and policymakers from much more serious, longer-term structural problems that affect all Americans.

Autonomous vehicles are cost-effective when used as taxis.

BACKGROUND: Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will radically re-shape the health and well-being of people in the United States in good ways and bad. We set out to estimate a reasonable time-to-adoption using cost-effectivenessmodels to estimate the point at which AVs become reasonably safe and affordable for widespread adoption. METHODS: We used Waymo data (previously, Google Self-Driving Car Project) and a microsimulation model to explore projected costs and safety issues today and five years from today to get a sense of the speed of consumer adoption were AVs brought to the market. RESULTS: The adoption of AVs for private use was associated with an ICER of 1,396,110/QALY gained today, a figure that would decline to 173,890/QALY gained 5-years in the future. However, AV taxis are both less expensive and potentially already safer than human-piloted taxis. CONCLUSIONS: While AVs are not unlikely to be used a family vehicles any time soon, it would make economic sense to adopt them as taxis today. Legislation enhancing the benefits while mitigating the potential harmful health impacts of AV taxis is needed with some urgency.

The impact of urban speed reduction programmes on health system cost and utilities.

BACKGROUND: Vehicle speed changes impact the probability of injuring a pedestrian in ways that differ from the way that it impacts the probability of a collision or of death. Therefore, return on investment in speed reduction programmes has complex and unpredictable manifests. The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of motor vehicle speed reduction on the collision-related morbidity and mortality rates of urban pedestrians. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We created a simple way to estimate the public health impacts of traffic speed changes using a Markov model. Our outcome measures include the cost of injury, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and probability of death and injury due to a road traffic collision. Our two-way sensitivity analysis of speed, both before the implementation of a speed reduction programme and after, shows that, due to key differences in the probability of injury compared with the probability of death, speed reduction programmes may decrease the probability of death while leaving the probability of injury unchanged. The net result of this difference may lead to an increase in injury costs due to the implementation of a speed reduction programme. We find that even small investments in speed reductions have the potential to produce gains in QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: Our reported costs, effects and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios may assist urban governments and stakeholders to rethink the value of local traffic calming programmes and to implement speed limits that would shift the trade-off to become between minor injuries and no injuries, rather than severe injuries and fatalities.

The Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nurse-Family Partnership in the United States.

We evaluated whether Nurse-Family Partnership might serve as a cost-effective social policy for improving health. Using data from studies of randomized controlled trials as well as real-world data, we conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate cost-effectiveness of Nurse-Family Partnership in a hypothetical cohort of first-born children in the United States. Analyses were conducted in 2015. Were all new mothers eligible for Nurse-Family Partnership, the program would produce 0.11 QALYs (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.06, 0.17) at an additional cost of $1,021 (95% CI=-$2,831, $4,414) per nurse-visited child's lifetime relative to the comparison-group children or $14,642 (95% CI = Savings, $71,877) per QALY gained. However, if applied to high-risk mothers, it would generate 0.19 QALYs (95% CI = 0.09, 0.44) and a net benefit of $2,764 (95% CI =-$1,210, $7,092) per nurse-visited child. Nurse-Family Partnership should be considered as a policy investment, particularly in an era of investments in the social determinants of health.

An Ounce of Prevention: Deaths Averted From Primary Prevention Interventions.

INTRODUCTION: The U.S. lags in the nationwide implementation of primary prevention interventions that have been shown to be efficacious. However, the potential population health benefit of widespread implementation of these primary prevention interventions remains unclear. METHODS: The meta-analytic literature from October 2013 to March 2014 of primary prevention interventions published between January 2000 and March 2014 was reviewed. The authors then estimated the number of deaths that could have been averted in the U.S. in 2010 if all rigorously studied, efficacious primary prevention interventions for which population attributable risk proportions could be estimated were implemented nationwide. RESULTS: A total of 372,054 (15.1%) of all U.S. deaths in 2010 would have been averted if all rigorously studied, efficacious primary prevention interventions were implemented. Two in three averted deaths would have been from cardiovascular disease or malignancy. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of deaths in the U.S. in 2010 could have been averted if efficacious primary prevention interventions were implemented nationwide. Further investment in the implementation of efficacious interventions is warranted to maximize population health in the U.S.

Undiagnosed depression: A community diagnosis.

Many large provider networks are investing heavily in preventing disease within the communities that they serve. We explore the potential benefits and challenges associated with tackling depression at the community level using a unique dataset designed for one such provider network. The economic costs of having depression (increased medical care use, lower quality of life, and decreased workplace productivity) are among the highest of any disease. Depression often goes undiagnosed, yet many believe that depression can be treated or prevented altogether. We explore the prevalence, distribution, economic burden, and the psychosocial and economic factors associated with undiagnosed depression in a lower-income neighborhood in northern Manhattan. Even using state-of-the art data to "diagnose" the risk factors within a community, it can be challenging for provider networks to act against such risk factors.

Cost Effectiveness of the Earned Income Tax Credit as a Health Policy Investment.

INTRODUCTION: Lower-income Americans are suffering from declines in income, health, and longevity over time. Income and employment policies have been proposed as a potential non-medical solution to this problem. METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis of state-level incremental supplements to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) program was performed using data from 1993 to 2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys and state-level life expectancy. The cost effectiveness of state EITC supplements was estimated using a microsimulation model, which was run in 2015. RESULTS: Supplemental EITC programs increased health-related quality of life and longevity among the poor. The program costs about $7,786/quality-adjusted life-year gained (95% CI=$4,100, $13,400) for the average recipient. This ratio increases with larger family sizes, costing roughly $14,261 (95% CI=$8,735, $19,716) for a family of three. CONCLUSIONS: State supplements to EITC appear to be highly cost effective, but randomized trials are needed to confirm these findings.

Cumulative social risk and type 2 diabetes in US adults: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2006.

BACKGROUND: The cumulative effects of adverse social factors on the diabetes risk remains to be clarified. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2006. METHODS: We included 10,276 adults aged ≥20 years. Diabetes mellitus was defined by physician diagnosis or fasting plasma glucose (≥126 mg/dl) or glycated hemoglobin (≥6.5%). Social risk factors (low family income, low education level, minority racial/ethnic group status, and single-living status) and health-related behaviors (physical activity and dietary intake) were self-reported. Social risk factors were combined in a cumulative social risk index (range 0 to ≥3) and logistic regression used to assess the association of cumulative social risk and diabetes, taking into account complex survey design and sampling weights. RESULTS: Of 10,276 participants, 1515 (weighted proportion - 10%) had diabetes, 3295 (32.3%) and 1830 (9.0%) were exposed to ≥1 adverse social risk factor and ≥3 social risk factors, respectively. Diabetes was associated with increasing cumulative social risk in a graded manner (p for trend <0.001). Compared with a cumulative social risk score of 0, the age- and sex-adjusted diabetes odds for a cumulative social risk score of ≥3 was 2.84 (95% confidence interval: 2.23-3.62), and 2.72 (95% confidence interval: 2.05-3.60) after further adjustment for family history of diabetes, body mass index, smoking, dietary intake and leisure time physical activity. Health behaviors and adiposity only partially influenced the cumulative social risk and diabetes relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Simultaneous exposure to several adverse social risk factors significantly influences the odds of diabetes. Better prevention and control of diabetes needs accounting for all aspects of social disadvantage.

How Automation Can Help Alleviate the Budget Crunch in Public Health Research.

In an era of severe funding constraints for public health research, more efficient means of conducting research will be needed if scientific progress is to continue. At present major funders, such as the National Institutes of Health, do not provide specific instructions to grant authors or to reviewers regarding the cost efficiency of the research that they conduct. Doing so could potentially allow more research to be funded within current budgetary constraints and reduce waste. I describe how a blinded randomized trial was conducted for $ 275,000 by completely automating the consent and data collection processes. The study used the participants' own computer equipment, relied on big data for outcomes, and outsourced some costly tasks, potentially saving $1 million in research costs.

Considering whether Medicaid is worth the cost: revisiting the Oregon Health Study.

The Oregon Health Study was a groundbreaking experiment in which uninsured participants were randomized to either apply for Medicaid or stay with their current care. The study showed that Medicaid produced numerous important socioeconomic and health benefits but had no statistically significant impact on hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, or diabetes. Medicaid opponents interpreted the findings to mean that Medicaid is not a worthwhile investment. Medicaid proponents viewed the experiment as statistically underpowered and, irrespective of the laboratory values, suggestive that Medicaid is a good investment. We tested these competing claims and, using a sensitive joint test and statistical power analysis, confirmed that the Oregon Health Study did not improve laboratory values. However, we also found that Medicaid is a good value, with a cost of just $62 000 per quality-adjusted life-years gained.

The cost-effectiveness of New York City's Safe Routes to School Program.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a package of roadway modifications in New York City funded under the Safe Routes to School (SRTS) program. METHODS: We used a Markov model to estimate long-term impacts of SRTS on injury reduction and the associated savings in medical costs, lifelong disability, and death. Model inputs included societal costs (in 2013 US dollars) and observed spatiotemporal changes in injury rates associated with New York City's implementation of SRTS relative to control intersections. Structural changes to roadways were assumed to last 50 years before further investment is required. Therefore, costs were discounted over 50 consecutive cohorts of modified roadway users under SRTS. RESULTS: SRTS was associated with an overall net societal benefit of $230 million and 2055 quality-adjusted life years gained in New York City. CONCLUSIONS: SRTS reduces injuries and saves money over the long run.

Timing and effect of a safe routes to school program on child pedestrian injury risk during school travel hours: Bayesian changepoint and difference-in-differences analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 2005, the US Congress allocated $612 million for a national Safe Routes to School (SRTS) program to encourage walking and bicycling to schools. We evaluated the effectiveness of a SRTS in controlling pedestrian injuries among school-age children. METHODS: Bayesian changepoint analysis was applied to model the quarterly counts of pedestrian injuries among 5- to 19-year old children in New York City between 2001 and 2010 during school-travel hours in census tracts with and without SRTS. Overdispersed Poisson model was used to estimate difference-in-differences in injury risk between census tracts with and without SRTS following the changepoint. RESULTS: In SRTS-intervention census tracts, a change point in the quarterly counts of injuries was identified in the second quarter of 2008, which was consistent with the timing of the implementation of SRTS interventions. In census tracts with SRTS interventions, the estimated quarterly rates of pedestrian injury per 10,000 population among school-age children during school-travel hours were 3.47 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 2.67, 4.39) prior to the changepoint, and 0.74 (95% CrI 0.30, 1.50) after the changepoint. There was no change in the average number of quarterly injuries in non-SRTS census tracts. Overdispersed Poisson modeling revealed that SRTS implementation was associated with a 44% reduction (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 87% decrease to 130% increase) in school-age pedestrian injury risk during school-travel hours. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian changepoint analysis of quarterly counts of school-age pedestrian injuries successfully identified the timing of SRTS intervention in New York City. Implementation of the SRTS program in New York City appears to be effective in reducing school-age pedestrian injuries during school-travel hours.

Impact of welfare reform on mortality: an evaluation of the Connecticut jobs first program, a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: We examined whether Jobs First, a multicenter randomized trial of a welfare reform program conducted in Connecticut, demonstrated increases in employment, income, and health insurance relative to traditional welfare (Aid to Families with Dependent Children). We also investigated if higher earnings and employment improved mortality of the participants. METHODS: We revisited the Jobs First randomized trial, successfully linking 4612 participant identifiers to 15 years of prospective mortality follow-up data through 2010, producing 240 deaths. The analysis was powered to detect a 20% change in mortality hazards. RESULTS: Significant employment and income benefits were realized among Jobs First recipients relative to traditional welfare recipients, particularly for the most disadvantaged groups. However, although none of these reached statistical significance, all participants in Jobs First (overall, across centers, and all subgroups) experienced higher mortality hazards than traditional welfare recipients. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in income and employment produced by Jobs First relative to traditional welfare improved socioeconomic status but did not improve survival.

Associations between healthy lifestyle behaviors and academic performance in U.S. undergraduates: a secondary analysis of the American College Health Association's National College Health Assessment II.

PURPOSE: To examine associations between academic performance and moderate-vigorous physical activity, strength training, fruit and vegetable intake, and sleep. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study. SETTING: Forty U.S. colleges and universities participating in the Fall 2008 National College Health Assessment-II (NCHA-II) (median response, 27%). SUBJECTS: A total of 16,095 undergraduate students (18-24 years; 70.3% female). MEASURES: Self-reported lifestyle variables from the NCHA-II questions were dichotomized as meeting or not meeting public health recommendations. Grade average ranged from 1.00 to 4.00 points. ANALYSIS: Linear regression, adjusting for sociodemographic and health-related variables. RESULTS: The prevalence of meeting public health recommendations was as follows: moderate-vigorous physical activity, 41.9%; strength training, 32.4%; fruit and vegetable intake, 4.6%; and sleep, 23.6 %. Grade average was higher in students meeting moderate-vigorous physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake, and sleep recommendations (p ≤ .019). If moderate-vigorous physical activity was met, grade average was higher by .03 points, .15 points higher when meeting fruit and vegetable intake recommendations, and .06 points higher for sleep. There was no significant change in grade average in those meeting strength-training recommendations. CONCLUSION: College students who adhere to public health recommendations for lifestyle behaviors have modestly higher grade averages after adjusting for sociodemographic and negative health behaviors.

The effects of a psychosocial dimension of socioeconomic position on survival: occupational prestige and mortality among US working adults.

The association between education or income and mortality has been explored in great detail. These measures capture both the effects of material disadvantage on health and the psychosocial impacts of a low socioeconomic position on health. When explored independently of educational attainment and income, occupational prestige - a purely perceptual measure - serves as a measure of the impact of a psychosocial phenomenon on health. For instance, a fire-fighter, academician or schoolteacher may carry the social benefits of a higher social status without actually having the income (in all cases) or the educational credentials (in the case of the fire-fighter) to match. We explored the independent influence of occupational prestige on mortality. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to a nationally representative sample of over 380,000 US workers who had worked at any time between 1986 and 1994 with mortality follow up through 2002. We found that occupational prestige is associated with a decrease in the risk of all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory-related mortality after controlling for household income and educational attainment. We further investigated the question of whether the effects of prestige are moderated by sex and broader occupational groupings. Prestige effects operate in white-collar occupations for men only and within service occupations for all workers.